Wow! What happened to my Biden leading in rust belt state polls? Did it go off the rails?
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It included three links from The Hill and Fox News showing Trump currently trailing in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and a comment that it is still over six months til the election. Nothing inflammatory.
Saw this too.
this fits with my oldest who is extremely motivated to get college students to vote against trump
this fits with my oldest who is extremely motivated to get college students to vote against trump
A bunch of politics posts were deleted - probably a good thing.
These are made up polls. Hillary was leading in 2016 too. Nothing here to believe is truthful.
It's early so I wouldn't put a ton of faith in these polls.
However, Whitmer is still polling well even after the well planned and financed faux backlash to her stay at home order. Peters is up big in early polls on the GOP senate nom. So it makes sense that Biden would be polling well in Michigan.
According to the Negative Partisanship model, Biden is tipped to win PA, WI and MI. New model is being released on Tuesday so it will be interesting to see if there has been any adjustment to model based off of COVID related events.
However, Whitmer is still polling well even after the well planned and financed faux backlash to her stay at home order. Peters is up big in early polls on the GOP senate nom. So it makes sense that Biden would be polling well in Michigan.
According to the Negative Partisanship model, Biden is tipped to win PA, WI and MI. New model is being released on Tuesday so it will be interesting to see if there has been any adjustment to model based off of COVID related events.
If he wins those states it is over. There's no way around it. Trump has to have one of those states.
That's just dumb. It will once again come down to WI, MI and PA (although the polling in AZ and IA is intriguing). If Trump wins the Electoral College he will likely lose the popular vote again.
Correct
It will definitely be a turnout election. What will make things interesting is how easy is it for people to vote if COVID starts to flare up in the fall.
For Dems it's all about addition; for the GOP (and they have admitted this) it's all about subtraction.
Trump supporters try to convince themselves that Biden is Hillary 2.0. Well, even Hillary 1.0 barely lost to Trump, specifically losing the 3 states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a TOTAL of just 77,000 votes. Compare how Biden has done against Sanders in all the Democratic primaries, north, south, east and west to how Clinton did against Sanders in 2016. Biden way, way outperformed Clinton (for example: Hillary lost Michigan to Sanders. Biden, on the other hand, beat Sanders in Michigan by a LANDSLIDE.) If you don't believe that Biden is infinitely more difficult to beat than Hillary, you really are delusional. There's a good reason why Trump wanted the Ukranian President to simply just announce (not necessarily conduct) an investigation of Biden.
The early polls just about always favor the democrats. Take it for it's worth. Polls this early are not meant to reflect public opinion but to shape public opinion.
One advantage Biden has this time around is this coronavirus issue. He's in a position to be able to say he'd have done something different...it doesn't matter what, just different...and sell it to people as a superior alternative to what Trump actually did. There's no way to say his plan would or wouldn't have worked. He'll be able to get some scientists to line up behind him and say his plan is what we should have done and it's what Biden would have done had he been in office.
One advantage Biden has this time around is this coronavirus issue. He's in a position to be able to say he'd have done something different...it doesn't matter what, just different...and sell it to people as a superior alternative to what Trump actually did. There's no way to say his plan would or wouldn't have worked. He'll be able to get some scientists to line up behind him and say his plan is what we should have done and it's what Biden would have done had he been in office.
Biden does better among black voters and white men than Clinton. That is what makes him a more formidable challenger.
of the world's population
Trump's problem regarding the coronavirus mess is that the U.S. has only 4% population. Last I checked, the U.S. had 20% of the world's deaths due to the virus and 30% of the world's confirmed cases. You can holler that China's numbers are not accurate, until all the cows come home. But, you can exclude China from the calculations and we still badly lag the rest of the world. Besides, our own health care experts say that we are under counting our own numbers. And then compare the number of American deaths due to coronavirus under Trump (close to 50,000) to the number of American deaths due to swine flu under Obama (12,000).....that is a problem that will follow Trump all the way to Election Day.
Trump's problem regarding the coronavirus mess is that the U.S. has only 4% population. Last I checked, the U.S. had 20% of the world's deaths due to the virus and 30% of the world's confirmed cases. You can holler that China's numbers are not accurate, until all the cows come home. But, you can exclude China from the calculations and we still badly lag the rest of the world. Besides, our own health care experts say that we are under counting our own numbers. And then compare the number of American deaths due to coronavirus under Trump (close to 50,000) to the number of American deaths due to swine flu under Obama (12,000).....that is a problem that will follow Trump all the way to Election Day.
While I agree overall with your post... the Swine Flu was easier to test and vaccinate for and was not a deadly. I do think Biden can craft a good story around their response to it but when you drill down on it, it was not the same.
Removing the Pandemic Desk from NSC (yeah I know it was Bolton that did it), allowing funding for embedded scientists on the ground in Wuhan to expire 2 months before the virus took off there, and the lost weeks when the testing was an absolute failure are things that Biden can point to and say that he would have done things differently.
Updated figures: the U.S. has 26% of the world's deaths and 32% of the world's confirmed cases. Looks to me like the problem is getting worse. As I said, this will follow Trump all the way through November.
Where does your son attend college? We may see that he gets a vacation. Just kidding.
Roller, I'm asking your opinion on this, simply as a friendly debate with no hate meant or derogatory tone. I'm curious as to what you are hearing from your son/his friends, etc. and would love your thoughts as well..
This is an excerpt from the above story...
The poll, by Harvard's Institute of Politics, found that 29% of that cohort say their lives are worse under President Trump's leadership, 39% say their lives are no different, and 15% say their lives are better.
I'm in my early 30s, so I'm a little outside this group polled, but for the life of me... I wish I honestly knew how their day to day lives were worse. Did they lose their jobs? Were some encouraged to get off government assistance and apply for jobs? How was their lives worse? The younger generation believes that it is "cool" to hate Trump. The same above mentioned link showed that Bernie would be beating Trump... again liking Bernie was "cool". I just don't see how their lives are worse.
Polls are wrong alit if the time from what the out the outcome they are predicting will be. Up until the day of the 2016 election the polls showed Hillary winning in this landslide victory. Then Trump ends up hanging Hillary her butt and wins.
I honestly thought Hillary would win due to biased news coverage swaying public opinion. Luckily the American People didn’t fall for it.
I honestly thought Hillary would win due to biased news coverage swaying public opinion. Luckily the American People didn’t fall for it.
The difference is simple: The swine flu didn't shut down the world, like Covid-19 has... to put this on the president is a far stretch. Mind you, he was the one who was called xenophobic and racist when he put China travel bans to hopefully contain it, while Pelosi and her gang were encouraging gatherings and protesting Trump "The Racist". The narrative can't swing back in forth...
Look, I'm glad Crooked Hillary didn't win, but more people fell for it than voted for Trump.
The silliness of it all, of course, is to think that a president has the power to stop a virus.
I have nothing to do with the numbers. The John Hopkins School Of Public Health reports the numbers. When your numbers lag the rest of the world, that speaks for itself. And the buck always stops with the President, no matter how much Trump tries to blame others. It's not called the most powerful office in the land for nothing.
Clinton was a bad candidate that wasn’t going to pull segments of the population regardless. What killed her campaign was Comey and the steps that the DNC took to ensure she was the nominee. People were more turned off from her than turned into Trump which made a big difference.
In actuality, the FINAL AVERAGING of multiple polls had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.2%. She won it by 2.1%, making the final averaging of polls incredibly close to spot on. And the polls in 2018 predicted that the Democrats would win 30-35 House seats. They won 40 or 41 House seats. Look, I'm not predicting that Trump will lose and Biden will win. I don't KNOW. But, neither does anyone else. You can say you do know, to help you sleep better. But, you don't KNOW, unless you have a time machine to travel around in.
I bet my stock portfolio on trump. I won the battle but lost the war so i cant bet my farm now. Literally, i have a farm or say just dirt with trees.
Swine flu less potent but there were 60 million cases. Biden can't hardly put 2 sentences together and they still want to vote for him. They want an AOC run government and that's what they'll get.
It may haunt Trump, may not. Hard to say.
Will just depend on if the American people think there were things he should have done that he didn't do. That's anyone's guess. Everyone...politicians, scientists, doctors...have been guessing with this virus from the outset. The nation's foremost authority, Fauci, told Americans in January that it was not a concern.
Will just depend on if the American people think there were things he should have done that he didn't do. That's anyone's guess. Everyone...politicians, scientists, doctors...have been guessing with this virus from the outset. The nation's foremost authority, Fauci, told Americans in January that it was not a concern.
You don't even have to compare Trump's performance re:covid to Obama's on swine flu. Just compare the U.S. to that of the rest of the world re:covid. And considering that Trump made up a word ("covfefe") that does not even exist, I would not roam into the world of literacy.
From what I have heard Biden say, I've had a hard time making heads or tails of the incoherent sentence's he's trying to put together.. I'm not sure if HE knows what the hell he is trying to say
What I'm saying is that I would not want to be running for re-election with that virus on my shoulders. I don't believe any politician with just one ounce of brain matter would.
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