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Average Yards as a measure of success

JGH 35

Well-Known Member
Oct 22, 2013
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In his press conference Muschamp defended his oline play by indicating that we had about 5 yards per carry on Saturday and that was pretty good. I appreciate him defending his players and being positive as he should be, but I have to disagree with his reasoning. Personally, I think average yards per carry is a meaningless statistic when trying to evaluate offensive performance. As is in this case you can have a very few plays where you gain substantial yardage, but on the vast majority of plays you gained very little. Those few plays skew the avg amount upward. That is exactly what happened last Saturday. From a statistical perspective I think a better measure of success is to look at the Median yards per carry. The median is the mid point of yards per attempt. Let's suppose you had 9 rushes for: -2,-1,1,2,2,3,5,22, and 34 yards. The average of that is 7.33 yards per carry. However, there were 2 plays that skew that number up, whereas, you were unsuccessful on at least 6 plays. In this case the Median number is 2 meaning there are just as many attempts above that number as there are below that number. In this instance 2 gives us a better evaluation of our success than does the average.
 
In his press conference Muschamp defended his oline play by indicating that we had about 5 yards per carry on Saturday and that was pretty good. I appreciate him defending his players and being positive as he should be, but I have to disagree with his reasoning. Personally, I think average yards per carry is a meaningless statistic when trying to evaluate offensive performance. As is in this case you can have a very few plays where you gain substantial yardage, but on the vast majority of plays you gained very little. Those few plays skew the avg amount upward. That is exactly what happened last Saturday. From a statistical perspective I think a better measure of success is to look at the Median yards per carry. The median is the mid point of yards per attempt. Let's suppose you had 9 rushes for: -2,-1,1,2,2,3,5,22, and 34 yards. The average of that is 7.33 yards per carry. However, there were 2 plays that skew that number up, whereas, you were unsuccessful on at least 6 plays. In this case the Median number is 2 meaning there are just as many attempts above that number as there are below that number. In this instance 2 gives us a better evaluation of our success than does the average.

You're a smart guy and we need more of those.
Your presentation was opined like an academic living in a Victorian manse that reeks of cat poot and pipe smoke; but ALSO like a site-selector for Wal-Mart a top-notch plant relocation advance scout looking for new digs or any entrepreneur worth his salt seeking the optimum location for that all-important SECOND location ... the one' that'll really decide his fate - to grow or die.
Your insightful deduce was an excellent deduction, with thoughtful bullets and spot-on construction.
A+ from a D-student who only ever learned one thing about math - buy for $1 dollar and sell for $2 dollars, you cannot beat that 1%.
 
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You're a smart guy and we need more of those.
Your presentation was opined like an academic living in a Victorian manse that reeks of cat poot and pipe smoke; but ALSO like a site-selector for Wal-Mart a top-notch plant relocation advance scout looking for new digs or any entrepreneur worth his salt seeking the optimum location for that all-important SECOND location ... the one' that'll really decide his fate - to grow or die.
Your insightful deduce was an excellent deduction, with thoughtful bullets and spot-on construction.
A+ from a D-student who only ever learned one thing about math - buy for $1 dollar and sell for $2 dollars, you cannot beat that 1%.
Good grief.
 
You're a smart guy and we need more of those.
Your presentation was opined like an academic living in a Victorian manse that reeks of cat poot and pipe smoke; but ALSO like a site-selector for Wal-Mart a top-notch plant relocation advance scout looking for new digs or any entrepreneur worth his salt seeking the optimum location for that all-important SECOND location ... the one' that'll really decide his fate - to grow or die.
Your insightful deduce was an excellent deduction, with thoughtful bullets and spot-on construction.
A+ from a D-student who only ever learned one thing about math - buy for $1 dollar and sell for $2 dollars, you cannot beat that 1%.

In any debate it is always comforting when some dissenter resorts to personal derogatory remarks to the person presenting the argument. It means only one thing - the idiot name caller has no argument to refute that which is presented. Thank you for the affirmation.
 
In his press conference Muschamp defended his oline play by indicating that we had about 5 yards per carry on Saturday and that was pretty good. I appreciate him defending his players and being positive as he should be, but I have to disagree with his reasoning. Personally, I think average yards per carry is a meaningless statistic when trying to evaluate offensive performance. As is in this case you can have a very few plays where you gain substantial yardage, but on the vast majority of plays you gained very little. Those few plays skew the avg amount upward. That is exactly what happened last Saturday. From a statistical perspective I think a better measure of success is to look at the Median yards per carry. The median is the mid point of yards per attempt. Let's suppose you had 9 rushes for: -2,-1,1,2,2,3,5,22, and 34 yards. The average of that is 7.33 yards per carry. However, there were 2 plays that skew that number up, whereas, you were unsuccessful on at least 6 plays. In this case the Median number is 2 meaning there are just as many attempts above that number as there are below that number. In this instance 2 gives us a better evaluation of our success than does the average.

When our RB's stop getting their face smashed in 2 yds deep in the backfield I will say the O Line is playing better. When it is 4th and 1 and we get 3 yds right up the gut I will say they are improving. I bet we have 200 lb guys that can smoke our 300 lb linemen in the weight room
 
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Muschamp inherited a very difficult situation on offense. He may be saying these things in order to build confidence in the players. However we are averaging 16 points per game and we haven't even faced the most talented part of our schedule. I think most people are concerned that the problem is our offensive line which should have been a strength.

He did bring up a good point that the O-line didn't give up a sack. However the problem is that the O-line is getting pushed back almost immediately which makes things difficult for our run game and doesn't give McIlwain much time to pass. I'm hoping the issue is that we have simplified things so much on offense that defenses are reading our cadence and getting the jump on the O-line. If that is the case, that is the type of thing that will start to remedy itself over the course of the season as the freshmen gain experience. Let's hope so because we are going to need to step it up on offense in order to compete, much less win, against some of the teams we will be playing.
 
I am very happy to have won 2 games thus far, but I am not very confident in the way we have played. There is a distinct possibility that we are a young team that is learning as we go along. As we get more comfortable with schemes, etc. we could see significant improvement. Then again, maybe not. Just have to wait and see.
 
If we had shoved Miss State around then nobody would be complaining. People are smart enough to know that we are going to face MUCH better d-lines than what ECU brought to the table. We've played one good defensive line so far and got smashed.
 
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