I will do it this one time. A post earlier went like this and I post below my reply.
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bdblack said: Well, speaking of Clemson, didn't they hire a guy named Dabo 13 years ago with even much less experience in those areas than Shane Beamer? Now how's that working out for ya?
Reply: Oh! Stop it. You take an isolated example and try to make it a norm. Don't violate basic statistics. And you in your hypothetical is setting Beamer = Swinney. Damn! "
The point - Clemson hiring Dabo is that a blueprint for our success?
So we hire Beamer (some posts here liken that to the Dabo hiring, like the post above). That is not just insane, it is infantile. One or two hires like that (Northwester and Clemson) don't make a rule. It has no statistical bearing. BS. These are exceptions to the rule. Ray is not the type of AD who can find that "acorn". But, only Ray falls for the" cloning of Dabo" type hire. The fact that Ray hired Muschamp and kept him for 5 years tells me how good Ray is at hiring. When you have evidence that a coach cannot do it at a better-resourced U, I must suspend reality to hire that coach. To say that I missed on my first and second choice in that hiring process and then go to my ....nth choice with hiring Muschamp also says that I am clueless and flailing in the wind. Ray does not have the temperament to be an AD. With that said, I like the fact that former players like Shane. To me that is huge ++.
When you hire, you are hiring probabilities of success. We must hire where those probabilities are high (e.g., Mac Brown). Dabo at hiring had a low probability of success, but he did it. Shane might do the same, but I doubt it, given that we play in the SEC and not in the ACC. Dabo was able to cover up his early SEC lossess with ACC championships. An AD can live with that.
Dabo also took over mid season and then gave Radokovich time to evalaute. So when he was made permanent there was evidence about his prowess. Shane is an absolute unknown. I hope it works out, but in my books such an outcome is tenuous to say the least.
OK, let's talk about statistics! The laws of probability say that in offensive football, at any level, a coach should never punt past his own 30 yard line. He is more likely to have success by using 4 downs to get 10 yards. In reality, what percentage of coaches actually follow that advice? Football is more a game of intelligence, talent, personality, intensity and luck than raw statistical information, unless you're playing Madden. I do agree with you that Terry Don Phillips lucked up and hit pay dirt with the hiring of Dabo. However, the reason he gave Swinney the interim job when Bowden resigned had absolutely nothing to do with analytics. He noticed that Dabo's office was always full of players before/after practice, most of whom didn't even play the wide receiver position. AD Phillips took a chance on Dabo because he saw how he related to people, especially the kids on the team. Sound familiar?
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