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Best Bets week 13. What’s the situation edition

R

Reddfoxx1

Guest
This Late in the year we know what teams are and what they aren’t, so Vegas lines are thought to be sharper, so we look at what’s important for these teams as they finish the season and try to hit goals.

What teams have packed it in. cough Duke, cough ….. (Duke is the new Vandy)
What teams are still celebrating
And what teams are looking ahead to next weeks finales.

11-6-1 last week
60-59-2 on the season
7-3 on USC games

1. Navy +4 over ECU.
1A. Navy ML +165 Congrats to the Pirates on beating Memphis in OT last to secure a bowl game for the first time in 6 years. ECU has looked pretty good vs some bad competition. Big hangover spot for them. Not to mention they can ruin Cincinnat’s season next in their home finale. This week they travel to poor ol 2-7 Navy coming off a bye. Navy has improved steadily this vs a top 20 schedule. What does ECU do poorly? Stop the run. Allowing 4.6 yards per rush to FBS teams, out side the top 100. Navy owns this series. Winning 7 of 8. (Averaging over 47 points)
Oh yeah, it’s senior Day at Navy, where They have won 17 in a row. Absolutely sprinkle.

Navy 38
ECU 24

2. BC -1.5 over FSU. Another situation we love. FSU just got their biggest win in 2 years last week, winning a thriller over Miami after losing 4 straight in that series. ALSO, they host in state rival Florida next Saturday. You better believe every Seminole is hearing/thinking about the Gators.
But this week they have to travel to a 37 degree Chestnut Hill. BC is so much better under Jerkovic. He looks healthy. Completely different offense. Lay the small number

BC 34
FSU 20

3. UCLA -3 over USC. One team is very motivated. One team is rudderless. UCLA was caught in a big lookahead spot last week at Colorado. Falling behind 20-7 at halftime. They woke up. Out scoring the Buffs 37-0 in the 2nd half. DTR looked the best he has in a month. USC has won 5 of 6 in this series, including a brutal beat last year in Westwood. Trojans turn to Freshman QB Jaxson Dart but they are without both star WR’s here. USC is 0-4 ATS since letting go of Clay Helton and show no signs of stopping UCLA’s run game. Kelly wants (and needs) this game badly. Lay it

UCLA 41
USC 28

4. Oregon State +3 over Arizona State. Beavers home road splits are eye pooping. They have been excellent in Corvallis. 11-3 ATS under new coach Johnathon Smith, including 5-0 this season. They have overhauled the offense to where they rank 7th in the country in Rushing yardage and efficiency. Herm‘s Sun Devils on the other hand have been a bad, untrustworthy road team, going 4-12 ATS going back to 2018. ASU got very fortunate last week in Washington and we don’t think they are consistent enough here. Sprinkle

Beavers 27
ASU 20

5. Cal -1.5 over Stanford.. The Cardinal get QB Tanner McKee back this week, but their problems are far worse than just one position. They are decimated on defense and have been gashed the last 2 weeks. The Cardinal have lost 5 in a row, losing by an average of 18 points.
Cal on the other hand is chomping at the bit to just play a game. Before the team got hit with a Covid outbreak 3 weeks ago (leading to a loss and a forfeit) they were playing great. Almost upsetting Oregon in Eugene, whipping Colorado by 23 and beating Oregon State by 2 TD’s. They are rested and have revenge in the big game, losing last year to a blocked punt.

Cal 31
Stanford 21

6. North Texas -10 over FIU. FIU has quit. White flag and we will continue to fade them. They are 2-8 ATS and lost by 40 to Middle Tennesse’s 3rd string QB last week. Ex coach Butch Jones exposed the program in a scathing exit 2 weeks ago and the team is punchless. North Texas on the other hand is hot. Winning 3 straight and fighting for bowl eligibility. Mean green

NT 38
FIU 17

also playing
7. Michigan -15 over Maryland - Maryland is 3-20 ATS when they don’t run the ball as a team for 150 yards. They can’t stop what Michigan does well. Harbaugh needs to impress the voters
8. K State pk over Baylor - Baylor letdown and they aren’t good on the road.
9. Iowa State +4 over Oklahoma. Oklahoma sucks.
10. Minnesota -7 over Indiana. Indiana is done. Also had 30 kids out due to the flu this week. Minnesota is a good team. Short number
11. West Virginia -2.5 over Texas. No Bijon Robinson for Texas. They are horrible on defense. And on the road.
12. Hawaii +3 over Colorado State. Love the Rainbows as a home dog on the Island

and USC

Auburn -7.5 over USC
Dont like the matchup here. We are surrendering way too many line yards by bigger O-Lines. Auburn should move us around. Finley not a big drop off from Nix and did not like what we saw from Jason Brown with film on him. I think USC will give a great effort next week, but BoBo will run it up if he has the chance. Number is too short.

Auburn 30
USC 14

good luck everyone
 
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