W
Wes Mitchell
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On the surface, there's not a whole lot of difference between South Carolina and Tennessee's 3-2 overall records.
The Vols own wins over Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech and a Missouri team that's defense is falling apart. And Tennessee has lost to both of the Top 25 teams it's played this season, Pitt and Florida.
As you know, the Gamecocks own three wins over teams you'd expect them to beat and then losses to Georgia as a heavy underdog and Kentucky as a moderate underdog.
That is to say, regardless of the impressive win over Missouri last week, this Tennessee team is not a juggernaut that's just gone up and down the field against every team it's played - they scored 34 against a Pitt team that allowed 44 points the next week to Western Michigan and scored just 14 points at Florida with the Gators by far possessing the best defense they've faced and by far doing the best job in slowing the Vols.
As impressive as it was that Tennessee scored 62 points in an SEC game - and they deserve all the credit for executing to the level of accomplishing that - this is a Missouri defense that many believe is on pace to be historically bad. Think South Carolina defense in 2014 bad, but worse, for a local reference point and this is a Tennessee scheme that, based on how it's designed, has proved time and time again that it can absolutely smash overmatched defenses due to its attacking nature and pace of play.
Remember how those Missouri offenses (with current UT head coach Josh Heupel as OC) would go up and down the field against lesser opponents, only to come back to earth against merely solid SEC defenses?
Was last week a case of a college-style offense simply boat racing an NFL-style defense that's struggled to stop anyone and has already seen its defensive line coach fired? Or proof that the Vols are starting to hit their stride on offense? The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle.
Now, with everything I've said above in mind - because I do believe this UT offense will come back down to this planet against strong defenses - the question is, are the Gamecocks capable of being that defense this week? Because there are some specific matchup issues between the two teams that should really concern you from a South Carolina standpoint, which I'll detail below.
** While the peak run for the "hurry-up, no-huddle" has probably passed in favor of offenses that are more balanced with multiple paces of play just a part of their toolbox, Tennessee is still decidedly all-in on the idea of running plays as fast as possible.
These guys operate at warp speed and make no apologies about it. And if they find themselves in a 3rd and 1 situation - a scenario where you see a lot of teams hurry to the line and run a quick play - the Vols kick it into hyperdrive. On one occasion against Mizzou, they literally snapped the ball with 35 seconds remaining on the 40-second play clock.
As defensive coordinator Clayton White said this week, there's no time to celebrate if you make a play and that "sense of urgency" was the phrase of the week around the Long Ops Building as the Gamecocks prepare for Tennessee.
Like most teams, the Vols do have different speeds of operation and they'll sometimes change plays at the line of scrimmage, but in this case it's just varying speeds of "fast."
** From a more schematic standpoint, like most offenses with a hurry-up, no-huddle identity, this is a purely spread offense and the Vols want to stretch defenses horizontally while then hitting them inside and on the edges with the running game.
It's a pretty diverse rushing attack with a lot of looks, including designed QB runs and read options to run. The Vols like to pare those runs with quick receiver screens to the outside and it will be important for the Gamecocks cornerbacks to get off blocks and make open field tackles on the perimeter.
The Vols love to stack receivers on the outside and either run screens or run fake screens with a go behind it, which can be extremely difficult to defend. It's really a numbers game - bring in help to box with a nickel and they throw the screen, bring the safeties too close and they go over the top.
But ultimately they want to be able to force you to play them straight up and then run the football and as Shane Beamer said this week, they run the ball more than anyone else in the SEC and they're explosive in doing so.
** Hendon Hooker didn't win the Vols QB job to start the season, but when Joe Milton (a former South Carolina recruit) went down with an injury, Hooker took the job and ran with it - quite literally.
Hooker isn't an incredibly advanced passer necessarily and this isn't an incredibly advanced passing game but he's a veteran and he's accurate and he looks comfortable in this scheme.
Where I think Hooker really hurts defenses is his ability in the running game. At 6-foot-4, 218-pounds he's a big dude who combines some size with a knack for making defenders miss in the open field with a subtle sidestep or juke. It adds an entirely new element to this scheme with an extra layer of difficulty in defending it.
** Former South Carolina JUCO placement RB Tiyon Evans has emerged as UT's top back in recent weeks and he does a bit of everything, running with power and toughness and enough speed to break off a 90-yarder last week. He's also been fairly active in the passing game.
This is where I think the Gamecocks' biggest concern has to lie. The Vols running game (including Hooker as mentioned above) against a South Carolina defense that's played really quite well so far this season, especially compared to expectations, but has gotten knocked out of their gaps at times against the run. I think you especially have to be concerned with Tennessee's ability to run the linebackers back and forth to defend horizontal edge throws and then quickly attacking inside with the run and wearing down a LBing corps that hasn't had the depth to rotate a bunch of guys at this point in the season.
If you're looking for massive red flag from a matchup standpoint, this is the area of the game that just flashes off the screen for me.
** The two ways that South Carolina can combat the issue above is for the Gamecocks' defensive line to have a dominant day up front and for the Carolina offense to be able to stay on the field, make a lot of first downs, and keep the Vols offense on the sidelines.
Carolina's DL has at times shown that it can be dominant and there have been struggles at times from the UT OL, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that they have a good day. A strong day from the d-line can be the great neutralizer against these styles of offense.
There were some positive signs last week from the Carolina offense and I think they'll have to again take a similar "throw first to run later" mindset to this game. I liked what I saw from some of the pistol and undercenter looks both in the running game and in the highly successful play-actions with Luke Doty rolling the pocket and suspect we'll see more of that as he's incredibly accurate throwing on the run.
Explosive plays are always nice and pretty much a requirement to win, but sprinkling in some long drives, as they did last week will be key, with one change... scoring touchdowns instead of field goals.
** The Gamecocks need for this to become what I call a red zone game. Tennessee will probably get its share of yardage in the contest and as much as fans hate the idea of bend but don't break, you can live with an opponent moving the football outside of the 20s, as long as you force field goals or turnovers when they get there.
Hooker has been good at protecting the football in the passing game (though Tennessee has put it on the turf some overall) and, as we know, the Gamecocks have been good about breaking on the football and creating interceptions. If those INT opportunities don't come this week then it's imperative for the defense to be able to force some field goal attempts.
On the other side, I don't think FGs will win this game for Carolina and they'll need to improve in that area, which usually stems from not being able to run the ball.
Carolina has been excellent at getting points in the red zone but not excellent at scoring TDs down there and they'll probably need to take a four-down approach and not settle for FGs to keep up with UT's offense.
FINAL PREDICTION: While I can't help but think Tennessee's offensive explosion against Missouri was a little bit of fool's gold against a defense that is playing awful right now, I also keep going back to the success the Vols have had in the running game and the added element of the QB run combined with some alarming signs from the Carolina defense in terms of stopping the run. I do believe the Carolina defensive line is fully capable of neutralizing some of what UT does, but the lack of LB depth against an opponent that utilizes so much tempo should be a big concern from a Carolina perspective. The Gamecocks will need their best game of the season from the offense in terms of both staying on the field and in scoring TDs instead of FGs. They may also need another big turnover or special teams play to swing this one as well. Tennessee 31, South Carolina 20
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