Pay less attention to the website and more attention to the direct quotes from Dr. Birx.
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Right now the mortality rate of this is at 1.2% in the USA. If this keeps going down...
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Pay less attention to the website and more attention to the direct quotes from Dr. Birx.
But that's where we are as a nation. Where you get your news is more important than any fact based reporting.
Private pilot idea to help
https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media...oronavirus?utm_source=epilot&utm_medium=email
https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media...oronavirus?utm_source=epilot&utm_medium=email
2 days ago we were at 1.4367% death rate and now we stand at 1.5367%. That is an increase of 10 basis points In just 2 days. At this rate the death rate is increasing with every new group reported. I think we will end this spread at about 4,000,000 people infected with nearly 62,000 dead in the next 30-40 days. Those numbers are astounding and I hope that i am wrong but not “dead” wrong. At this rate, C-19 will kill double the people ( and only about 10% infected vs the FLU) in half the time than the FLU killed in the 18-19 season per the CDC reports.
Very scary, if these prove to be true or even close to true.
Very scary, if these prove to be true or even close to true.
nit business as usual!!! just having the ability to support my family!! not everyone have bank accounts with enough money in them to survive the lay offs!!... some people live week to week man....js
No offense taken. I certainly understand. It’s a delicate balance to strike. So far we are good but that could change if this continues.
You may think I’m well off. I’d consider myself upper middle class, but I make little enough to max out on the stimulus pay for a married couple. There’s no trust fund here.
So if a person chooses to read the Washington Examiner, it is proof positive he/she hasn't a clue about science? What have you been smoking, young man?
There are soooooo many variables with this disease I honestly dont think these hard scientific facts, by all of you experts will help...Way to many variables. Common themes are elderly, sick, and people that live in dense, urban areas.
Lots of dumb posts on this forum.
This one looks like it’ll lead the pack for a while.
Presently there are about 107,000+ WW2 vets who die every year.
They aren’t dying from COVID-19, they’re dying because they’re in their 90’s.
He makes some valid points in some of his posts.
But upon reading his own words, he doesn’t “value likes from mostly right wing forums”.
Now to be fair, I don’t care about likes from anyone. But a few of his posts smack of elitism. So yes, I’d say if you read anything from the Washington Examiner he’d equate it to reading National Enquirer.
The Washington Examiner is carefully crafted to convince people with right wing views to feel better about those views. That is a fact. The owner of that website is a anti-science nut job. Yes, I contend that the vast majority of people that have that website bookmarked lack a full understanding of scientific principles or at the very least are closed-minded about the natural world. Yes, I am saying that supporters of the far right ideals of creationism, anti-gay and climate change denial are not going to make sound decisions about controlling a pandemic.
Just in case folks are wondering, I am not a left wing nut job. I despise pure politicians of all types including Hillary and Biden. I know that I come off as elitist by making all these assumptions about people based on a few details, but this is an internet message board. With all this anonymity, assumptions are kind of all I have here. That said, I spent my whole life in SC and know in my heart that most of my home state is poorly educated and makes decisions based emotional responses to TV shows, movies and websites. Hardly any adults in SC reads books except for light fiction on the beach.
I don't know crap about playing college football, because I only did it with a Nerf ball. I don't know crap about the economy because I only listen to Planet Money for fun. But I know biology better than 99.999% of humanity. I am also a compassionate person that cares about the well being of strangers. I will stand behind everything I've stated in this thread and will admit when someone else has made a good point or changed the way I think about things.
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No, it's not 100%. Case in point, my dude @JDishnell clearly knows a ton about science and was linking to that website. He is an intelligent person for sure. I bet he is one of the more moderate readers of that website or came to that story by chance and does not visit it daily.
Just go cruise the Washington Examiner stories. Notice any trends? It's all a front for one way of thinking. You'd be way better off just reading the Wall Street Journal article itself which is mostly free of political bending. There's a paper I can respect.
Define "unprotected."
If you're talking about completely opening up the US to free immigration, then no, I don't think that's a good idea. I don't really know much about that stuff.
The Washington Examiner has a partisan point of view. Everything they publish seeks to reinforce their view.
MSNBC does the same thing, Fox does the same thing Huff Post has a liberal partisan point of view.
I never go to any of those sources first or even third. I might read them to see what that side is saying, but it’s always to see what “that side” is saying. I never go to any of those sites for an honest take.
read such with open eyes knowing they are pushing a point of view and it’s likely other people won’t accept Information from such a source.
According to Johns Hopkins, the current mortality rate in the US is 1.6%.
104,680 reported cases and 1,711 deaths. That is a lower rate than the worldwide mortality rate. Earlier this week the US mortality rate was about 1.2%. I still think we are under testing and there are many more mild cases than have been reported which would take this rate down substantially. But this is what is being reported based on available information.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...t-least-28717-deaths-2020-03-28?mod=home-page
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdash...8e9ecf6?mod=article_inline&mod=article_inline
104,680 reported cases and 1,711 deaths. That is a lower rate than the worldwide mortality rate. Earlier this week the US mortality rate was about 1.2%. I still think we are under testing and there are many more mild cases than have been reported which would take this rate down substantially. But this is what is being reported based on available information.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...t-least-28717-deaths-2020-03-28?mod=home-page
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdash...8e9ecf6?mod=article_inline&mod=article_inline
What's hard about these numbers is how much stuff is wait and see. If there are 104,000 reported cases, then there are likely 100,000+ unreported current infections, maybe much more than that if 99% of children are asymptomatic. Also, there are literally millions of people waiting on test results right now, a decent percent of whom will become confirmed cases over the next 2 weeks.
It is my belief that well over 1 million people are infected in the US as of today, but there's no way to test sensitively enough and wide scale enough to really find out. There's also no way to know how many current virally infected people will die over the next month. So the mortality rate is certainly a moving number. I'm hoping that when all is said and done counting this stuff, that the real rate is closer to 0.1%. Until we have a better idea of the risks, I'm staying away from humans.
Mortality % rate will peak about 5 to 7 days following peak new day cases unless they ramp up testing considerably.
According to John Hopkins there are 135,779 that have recovered. 28,794 deaths worldwide. That would be about 17.5% mortality rate. The US is 895 recovered and 1711 deaths. That would be about a 65% death rate. Of course those numbers are not at all accurate as a way to see the death rate because so many are still unresolved. Just as you can't use current counts of active and resolved cases and compare it to deaths to come up with an accurate number. An accurate rate will not be known for a while in the US and can change if hospitals are overwhelmed. I am sure the total number of cases is much higher than what has been confirmed. As well as the total number that have recovered. John Hopkins is not posting a mortality rate on that website. Just raw numbers of confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths.
On this John Hopkins page they list mortality rates from other sources.
https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopki.../540747/all/Coronavirus_COVID_19__SARS_CoV_2_
Mortality rates for reported COVID–19 cases, by age group —United States†
Age (yrs)
Mortality Rate
≥85
10–27%
65–84
3–11%
55-64
1–3%
20–54
< 1%
≤19
0%
†Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. ePub: 18 March 2020
And worldwide..
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According to a site I’ve been watching, (BNO news) the US had about 113,416 cases at some point of reporting in the last day. There were 1893 deaths and 2,201 in critical condition. That is a 1.67% mortality rate currently. However, only 2,439 have been categorized as recovered. That is a 1.9% recovery rate. To take the mortality rate as proof that only a small percentage of people will die is no more accurate than to say only 2% will recover, since that is the current number. We all know that isn’t the case. What these numbers tell us is that 96% of the cases in the US are as yet unresolved, so we are in the early stages of this. The death rate in real time is not at all accurate yet.
China, by contrast has a death rate of 4% and a recovery rate of 92%. Given that only about 4% of the total cases are unresolved, those numbers are much more indicative of the mortality rate of this virus. Of course I have been in a hospital in China and I would predict that we will do much better than that — IF we do what we can to flatten the curve. If we just keep on keeping on, we will overwhelm the medical system and end up more like Italy than we want to.
STAY HOME!!!
Edit to note this is nearly the same as the post directly above mine that was added as I typed.
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Took a class in Immunology by Dr Glick when I was getting my PhD at Clemson in the early 90’s. It was easily the best class I ever took. No textbook, just research articles taking you through the process by which various key components/processes of the immune system where discovered.
This entire thread misses the point. It has never been about the mortality rate. It is about many people getting sick at one time and overrunning the health care system. Yes, you will probably live but many will need hospital beds and if this thing gets out of control we will have a problem. That is the concern, not the mortality rate.
BINGO! Hence the phrase, flatten the curve.
Congrats to those who think they can dictate what others read and ignore..
A couple of sad news links,especially about Italy,I was just shaking my head when reading and watching the short video..
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...es-halls-death-toll-soars-969-single-day.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...icer-dies-coronavirus-kills-two-staffers.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...es-halls-death-toll-soars-969-single-day.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...icer-dies-coronavirus-kills-two-staffers.html
Maybe you should consider moving to countries like China, Russia, Cuba, North Korea and Iran.
Free speech is discouraged there.
The curve would have been naturally flatter if the media hadn't overhyped this whole thing though. Now every Joe with a runny nose is rushing to call his healthcare provider, thinking "oh god, I have the corona!"
Case in point: mass email from Novant "Is it seasonal allergies or COVID-19?" That email isn't going out if Novant's call centers aren't getting absolutely blown up with traffic because people are panicking... Because the media stirred everyone into a frenzy.
That data is 14 days old isn't it? (It says March 14th at the bottom of the chart above on the web page.) I think you also have to correct for the disease incubation period to get the correct CFR. So the number of deaths as of today would be divided by the the number of cases 7-14 days (I think they are using 7 days) before. But it is hard to know if those numbers are accurate because of the lack of testing in the US. There could be many more infected with mild cases who never even report being ill.According to John Hopkins there are 135,779 that have recovered. 28,794 deaths worldwide. That would be about 17.5% mortality rate. The US is 895 recovered and 1711 deaths. That would be about a 65% death rate. Of course those numbers are not at all accurate as a way to see the death rate because so many are still unresolved. Just as you can't use current counts of active and resolved cases and compare it to deaths to come up with an accurate number. An accurate rate will not be known for a while in the US and can change if hospitals are overwhelmed. I am sure the total number of cases is much higher than what has been confirmed. As well as the total number that have recovered. John Hopkins is not posting a mortality rate on that website. Just raw numbers of confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths.
On this John Hopkins page they list mortality rates from other sources.
https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopki.../540747/all/Coronavirus_COVID_19__SARS_CoV_2_
Mortality rates for reported COVID–19 cases, by age group —United States†
Age (yrs)
Mortality Rate
≥85
10–27%
65–84
3–11%
55-64
1–3%
20–54
< 1%
≤19
0%
†Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. ePub: 18 March 2020
And worldwide..
I've heard several experts say that we will not know the true rate at which this virus kills those infected until much later.
Sorry 19, he is right...just stop pushing your agenda and have a good time for the next few months. You only have “X” # of years left n earth.
My Agenda WTH.... Is free speech not a thing anymore. Where do you think are, N. Korea. I have an idea, press ignore or don't read my post. Or you could move to China where its normal. GTFOH
If your “agenda” matched his, I’m sure everything would be just fine.
That's exactly what I was thinking. It's right out of the Marxist playbook.
And how many that want to save every life despite the economic consequences dont blink an eye at abortion?
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It sickens me when I realize Muschamp ran our program so far into the ground it's going to take- Latest: Southern Fried Chicken
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