B
Brian_Edwards
Guest
South Carolina (5-4 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) returns home Saturday night to take on an FCS foe, Chattanooga, in a 7:30 p.m. EST kickoff at Williams-Brice Stadium. As of early Thursday night, a few offshore betting shops had the Gamecocks installed as 31-point favorites.
There wasn’t a total for ‘over/under’ bets yet, nor was there a money-line price on the Mocs. For games against FCS competition, these numbers get released on Friday or early Saturday. I’ll chime in with what they are on The Insiders Forum when I locate them.
If you heard me on any radio shows this past summer, you know I was extremely bullish on South Carolina’s win total to go ‘over’ seven. For those unfamiliar, every FBS school is issued a team total and then bettors can wager on whether that team goes ‘over’ or ‘under’ that amount of victories.
Again, South Carolina’s original number was seven. The ‘over’ was bet so heavily that by mid-August, a lot of books had adjusted the total to 7.5 or was forcing ‘over’ supporters to risk heavy juice in the -160 range (risk $160 to win $100). One other thing with these types of bets is that they are for the 12 regular-season games only (wins in bowl games or conference-championship games don’t apply).
When USC’s game with Marshall was postponed in Week 3, I thought wagers on the Gamecocks’ win total would become ‘no plays’ (the equivalent of a push). Various books have different house rules that apply here so now that a 12th game is scheduled vs. Akron, the guess here is that some books will still grade this bet as a win or loss.
On that note, those gamblers like me need wins over Chattanooga and Akron to get a push. Now certainly, this space isn’t hanging an automatic ‘L’ to the Gamecocks at Clemson, but we all know that’s a situation in which they’ll be heavy underdogs.
USC is in just its second game as a double-digit favorite this year. In the first instance, the Gamecocks smashed Coastal Carolina 49-15 as 30-point home ‘chalk.’ During Will Muschamp’s three-year tenure, South Carolina is 5-6 ATS in 11 games as a home favorite. When the Gamecocks are double-digit home favorites on Muschamp’s watch, they own a 1-3 spread record.
What do we know about Chattanooga? The Mocs are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS. After starting the season 4-0 both SU and ATS, they’ve lost four of their past six games while going 1-5 ATS.
Chattanooga has been an underdog five times, going 3-2 both SU and ATS. The Mocs lost to Mercer by a 13-9 count last week as 6.5-point favorites.
Without seeing Chattanooga in action, I can’t recommend a play here.
AROUND THE COUNTRY
However, I certainly have some ideas on other games.
My favorite of the week is Syracuse (8-2 SU, 7-2-1 ATS) as a 10-point underdog against unbeaten Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. I think The ‘Cuse is going to win outright and will be getting a small taste of the Orange on the money line for a +325 payout (paid $325 on $100 wagers). To be clear, I recommend taking Syracuse plus the points for much more (amount-wise) than a bet on it to win at +325 odds.
Forgive me for ‘Butch Jones-ing’ this stat, but the Orange is 8-0 ATS in its past eight games as an underdog when senior QB Eric Dungey is healthy. (I’m not counting Syracuse’s final three games of last year’s regular season when Dungey was sidelined with a broken foot.) Dino Babers’s squad is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season with a pair of outright victories.
Remember, Syracuse’s only losses came at Clemson (27-23) and at Pittsburgh (in overtime). Babers’s bunch led the Tigers for 50-plus minutes in Death Valley before losing when the Tigers got the game-winning TD with 41 ticks remaining.
Then in a vintage letdown situation at Heinz Field the following week, the Orange went down in the extra session. Since then, they’ve won four straight games and they’ve covered the number in three consecutive contests that were won by double-digit margins.
Let’s also go with UCF as a seven-point home favorite vs. Cincinnati. This is the Knights’ first single-digit home ‘chalk’ spot all season. They’ve won nine of their 10 games by double-digit margins.
NFL
Let’s slide over to the NFL for players on the Chargers (-7 vs. Denver), the Falcons (-3 vs. Dallas) and the Saints (-8 vs. Philadelphia). Philip Rivers has a 21/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has his team riding a six-game winning streak. Four of those victories have come by eight points or more and three have come by double digits.
Denver is 1-6 in its past seven games with its lone win coming over lowly Arizona. Case Keenum (11/10 TD-INT ratio) has been a monumental disappointment.
Atlanta has won three of its past four games and might get star LB Deion Jones back this week. Matt Ryan (21/3 TD-INT) is playing outstanding football and I expect the Falcons to bounce back nicely at home.
Drew Brees has been beyond sensational this year, completing 77.3 percent of his passes for 2,601 yards with a 21/1 TD-INT ratio. The Saints have won eight games in a row with five of those victories coming by double digits. The Eagles, on the other hand, are a mess and have dropped two of their three road assignments both SU and ATS.
I've been enjoying the questions and feedback each week, so fire away with whatever you want me to discuss and I'll jump in there a time or three on Friday. Best of luck to all with their wagers!
There wasn’t a total for ‘over/under’ bets yet, nor was there a money-line price on the Mocs. For games against FCS competition, these numbers get released on Friday or early Saturday. I’ll chime in with what they are on The Insiders Forum when I locate them.
If you heard me on any radio shows this past summer, you know I was extremely bullish on South Carolina’s win total to go ‘over’ seven. For those unfamiliar, every FBS school is issued a team total and then bettors can wager on whether that team goes ‘over’ or ‘under’ that amount of victories.
Again, South Carolina’s original number was seven. The ‘over’ was bet so heavily that by mid-August, a lot of books had adjusted the total to 7.5 or was forcing ‘over’ supporters to risk heavy juice in the -160 range (risk $160 to win $100). One other thing with these types of bets is that they are for the 12 regular-season games only (wins in bowl games or conference-championship games don’t apply).
When USC’s game with Marshall was postponed in Week 3, I thought wagers on the Gamecocks’ win total would become ‘no plays’ (the equivalent of a push). Various books have different house rules that apply here so now that a 12th game is scheduled vs. Akron, the guess here is that some books will still grade this bet as a win or loss.
On that note, those gamblers like me need wins over Chattanooga and Akron to get a push. Now certainly, this space isn’t hanging an automatic ‘L’ to the Gamecocks at Clemson, but we all know that’s a situation in which they’ll be heavy underdogs.
USC is in just its second game as a double-digit favorite this year. In the first instance, the Gamecocks smashed Coastal Carolina 49-15 as 30-point home ‘chalk.’ During Will Muschamp’s three-year tenure, South Carolina is 5-6 ATS in 11 games as a home favorite. When the Gamecocks are double-digit home favorites on Muschamp’s watch, they own a 1-3 spread record.
What do we know about Chattanooga? The Mocs are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS. After starting the season 4-0 both SU and ATS, they’ve lost four of their past six games while going 1-5 ATS.
Chattanooga has been an underdog five times, going 3-2 both SU and ATS. The Mocs lost to Mercer by a 13-9 count last week as 6.5-point favorites.
Without seeing Chattanooga in action, I can’t recommend a play here.
AROUND THE COUNTRY
However, I certainly have some ideas on other games.
My favorite of the week is Syracuse (8-2 SU, 7-2-1 ATS) as a 10-point underdog against unbeaten Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. I think The ‘Cuse is going to win outright and will be getting a small taste of the Orange on the money line for a +325 payout (paid $325 on $100 wagers). To be clear, I recommend taking Syracuse plus the points for much more (amount-wise) than a bet on it to win at +325 odds.
Forgive me for ‘Butch Jones-ing’ this stat, but the Orange is 8-0 ATS in its past eight games as an underdog when senior QB Eric Dungey is healthy. (I’m not counting Syracuse’s final three games of last year’s regular season when Dungey was sidelined with a broken foot.) Dino Babers’s squad is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season with a pair of outright victories.
Remember, Syracuse’s only losses came at Clemson (27-23) and at Pittsburgh (in overtime). Babers’s bunch led the Tigers for 50-plus minutes in Death Valley before losing when the Tigers got the game-winning TD with 41 ticks remaining.
Then in a vintage letdown situation at Heinz Field the following week, the Orange went down in the extra session. Since then, they’ve won four straight games and they’ve covered the number in three consecutive contests that were won by double-digit margins.
Let’s also go with UCF as a seven-point home favorite vs. Cincinnati. This is the Knights’ first single-digit home ‘chalk’ spot all season. They’ve won nine of their 10 games by double-digit margins.
NFL
Let’s slide over to the NFL for players on the Chargers (-7 vs. Denver), the Falcons (-3 vs. Dallas) and the Saints (-8 vs. Philadelphia). Philip Rivers has a 21/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has his team riding a six-game winning streak. Four of those victories have come by eight points or more and three have come by double digits.
Denver is 1-6 in its past seven games with its lone win coming over lowly Arizona. Case Keenum (11/10 TD-INT ratio) has been a monumental disappointment.
Atlanta has won three of its past four games and might get star LB Deion Jones back this week. Matt Ryan (21/3 TD-INT) is playing outstanding football and I expect the Falcons to bounce back nicely at home.
Drew Brees has been beyond sensational this year, completing 77.3 percent of his passes for 2,601 yards with a 21/1 TD-INT ratio. The Saints have won eight games in a row with five of those victories coming by double digits. The Eagles, on the other hand, are a mess and have dropped two of their three road assignments both SU and ATS.
I've been enjoying the questions and feedback each week, so fire away with whatever you want me to discuss and I'll jump in there a time or three on Friday. Best of luck to all with their wagers!
