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What it will take to upset Kentucky

C

Collyn Taylor

Guest
The Gamecocks are in a rough spot right now, losers of their last three and facing what could be their first 0-3 start in SEC play since 2014.

They try to stop the skid against No. 10 Kentucky Wednesday (6:30 p.m., SEC Network). Before they try, a look at a few key stats and keys to pulling off the upset.

Numbers to know

46.7 and 44.2

These are effective field goal percentages when South Carolina has the ball with the Gamecocks sporting a 46.7 percent effective field goal mark while Kentucky's opponents are shooting just 44.2 percent against the Wildcats, the 25th-best mark in the country.

South Carolina's struggled to shoot the ball, which means the matchup against a Kentucky defense that's good at forcing misses is a big, big matchup in this game. Something will have to give if the Gamecocks want to score points.

28 and 77.5

Of the points South Carolina is allowing this year, 28 percent is coming from the free throw line, one of the highest percentages in the country. On the other hand, Kentucky is shooting 77.5 percent from the stripe this season (12th-highest nationally).

The Gamecocks have fouled too much in recent games, which means if they do it again against the Wildcats then it could result in a lot of free points and an unneeded deficit.

56.9 and 51.6

These are Kentucky's numbers shooting from inside the three point line. The Cats are shooting 51.6 from two, and 56.9 percent of their points are from that area. South Carolina's done a good job defending the paint this season with teams shooting just 43.1 percent against them inside the season.

Keys to victory

Pack the paint

Kentucky's team this year is a little different compared to previous teams with the Cats playing more through the low post with Nick Richards and having drive-first guards like Immanuel Quickley, Ashton Hagans and Tyrese Maxey.

UK is also one of the worst teams in the SEC in shooting the three, converting at just a 32.1 percent but shooting a lot of threes even though they don't hit frequently.

Because the majority of their points are scored near the basket, the Gamecocks need to limit Richards' productivity and guards need to keep guards on the perimeter to keep Kentucky out of the paint and limit easy buckets.

Don't foul

Kentucky is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country and do a good job of getting to the line, averaging over 17 free throw attempts per game. South Carolina on the other hand is allowing 18 free throw attempts per game as well.

The Cats benefit from having aggressive guards and two good big men that can get close to the basket and draw fouls with Hagans drawing 5.4 fouls per 40 minutes and three others players drawing over four fouls for every 40 minutes they play.

South Carolina will need to limit the amount of fouls they commit and if they do it could limit Kentucky's easy scoring opportunities.

Take efficient shots

It goes without saying South Carolina needs to take good shots, but the Gamecocks have struggled offensively and rank last in the SEC in offensive efficiency and three point percentage through two conference games, 13th in effective field goal percentage, two-point percentage and free throw shooting and turnover rate.

Because the offense is struggling like it is, it'll be important to get good shots, which obviously have a higher percentage of going in the hoop. They missed 17 layups and a dunk against Tennessee and will need to capitalize on those opportunities against Kentucky if they want to win since the three ball isn't going in at a high rate right now.
 
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