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Why is the money moving on UK this morning?

kickinchicken04

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Oct 27, 2005
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I just don't get it. It seems that all signs point to us in this one, so I wonder why bettors are on Kentucky this morning. The line has moved this morning at various casinos from 1/2 point to 1.5 points in UK's favor.
 
I just don't get it. It seems that all signs point to us in this one, so I wonder why bettors are on Kentucky this morning. The line has moved this morning at various casinos from 1/2 point to 1.5 points in UK's favor.
Uncertainty & a nice stack of points
 
It's the fact you guys have been outgained substantially in total yards, won the turnover battle and got special teams scores in your victories. Vegas looks strictly at stats, they don't watch the games. UK is ranked 8th nationally in run defense while Carolina is near the bottom of the SEC in offense and defense from strictly a yardage gained or given up perspective. This game is going to be a lot more competitive than most want to believe.
 
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It's the fact you guys have been outgained substantially in total yards, won the turnover battle and got special teams scores in your victories. Vegas looks strictly at stats, they don't watch the games. UK is ranked 8th nationally in run defense while Carolina is near the bottom of the SEC in offense and defense from strictly a yardage gained or given up perspective. This game is going to be a lot more competitive than most want to believe.
Royce- I think you may want to consider quality of opponent when you look at these stats. Your summary doesn't tell the whole story it you consider how good the teams you have played are. Plus, you guys have had two home games. We've yet to set foot on home soil. I do think it will be close, though. Your RB scares me.
 
it's not moving because of what fans think or what they are betting. Movement opposite from the majority of public bets means big money from Vegas pros went on UK recently.
 
it's not moving because of what fans think or what they are betting. Movement opposite from the majority of public bets means big money from Vegas pros went on UK recently.

I thought about that. Maybe one or two high rollers put big money on the cats.
 
If so, I believe will be attributed to Muschamp's conservative nature.

I wish he would go for the throat. Last week sitting on the ball before the half. Not taking a shot after a turnover. I loved that spurrier smelled blood after a turn over But I will take a win any day
 
It's the fact you guys have been outgained substantially in total yards, won the turnover battle and got special teams scores in your victories. Vegas looks strictly at stats, they don't watch the games. UK is ranked 8th nationally in run defense while Carolina is near the bottom of the SEC in offense and defense from strictly a yardage gained or given up perspective. This game is going to be a lot more competitive than most want to believe.

8th in the nation based on stats against Eastern Kentucky and Southern Miss.

If you think that is all Vegas is looking at, you are wrong.
 
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Some of these posts are amusing.
If what is being speculated was true, all youd have to do is watch games for late line moves and then bet with the line move, and you'd always come out ahead.
Give that a shot on every game for a few weeks, let me know how it works out for you.
 
I just don't get it. It seems that all signs point to us in this one, so I wonder why bettors are on Kentucky this morning. The line has moved this morning at various casinos from 1/2 point to 1.5 points in UK's favor.


A lot of times Vegas looks at trends. Kentucky has beat us 3 years in a row, when they beat us the games are close and go down to the wire. When we win its likely a blow out.
We had won something like 13 in a row before losing these 3. I don't know why the line moved if it actually did. Has anyone confirmed the move?

Kentucky is going down. Bet the house
 
I just don't get it. It seems that all signs point to us in this one, so I wonder why bettors are on Kentucky this morning. The line has moved this morning at various casinos from 1/2 point to 1.5 points in UK's favor.

I play with real money. As of 4:38 PM. Carolina is a 7 pt favorite; 48 on the over/under
 
A lot of times Vegas looks at trends. Kentucky has beat us 3 years in a row, when they beat us the games are close and go down to the wire. When we win its likely a blow out.
We had won something like 13 in a row before losing these 3. I don't know why the line moved if it actually did. Has anyone confirmed the move?

Kentucky is going down. Bet the house

That may be correct for the 'opening lines' however, well before game day, the spread is solely determined by what has already been wagered and what direction the house wants to go, to protect their interest. It is 100% mathematical.
 
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UK
is the better team. Missouri is horrible and NC State isn't that good. Playing opening game at Southern Miss is no picnic. Eastern Ky has 25 transfers from power 5 teams. UK got them in the end because of their depth, UK played 24 players on defense in that game.
 
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Royce- I think you may want to consider quality of opponent when you look at these stats. Your summary doesn't tell the whole story it you consider how good the teams you have played are. Plus, you guys have had two home games. We've yet to set foot on home soil. I do think it will be close, though. Your RB scares me.
While correct, Vegas doesn't look at it that way.
 
That may be correct for the 'opening lines' however, well before game day, the spread is solely determined by what has already been wagered and what direction the house wants to go, to protect their interest. It is 100% mathematical.
Hartin explained it this week. I for one was clueless.
So the diehard bettors are betting on Sunday already.(?)....
Btw, this post is dead on.
 
UK
is the better team. Missouri is horrible and NC State isn't that good. Playing opening game at Southern Miss is no picnic. Eastern Ky has 25 transfers from power 5 teams. UK got them in the end because of their depth, UK played 24 players on defense in that game.
Righhht?
 
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