Happy new year everyone! There's been a lot of football talk lately, so I figured we needed some basketball to change things up. First, some quick shooting statistics. Offensively, we're slightly better than Memphis, knocking down 47.6% or our two point attempts and 40.9% of our three's, compared to a two-point percentage of 46.4% and 29.0%, respectively, for Memphis (for reference, SEC teams are shooting 51.4% and 34.7%, respectively). However, Memphis makes up for it on the defensive end, limiting opponents to 39.6% and 30.2%, respectively, to Carolina's 41.3% and 34.3%, respectively (SEC average: 44.2% and 32.5%). Digging a little bit deeper, I came up with some keys to the game. If you've paid attention to Martin's press conferences, the first two should look pretty familiar...
1) Limit the turnovers. This is really starting to become a problem for us. In fact, I would say this is probably our biggest issue. Since returning from the Virgin Islands, we have been turning the ball over every 4.346 attempts (which would be 13th in the SEC), and are slightly underwater in assist to turnover ratio, at 0.958. This has to stop, period. If this game goes south, or if we struggle in conference play, or both, this will be the reason why.
2) Own the defensive glass. This one should be doable. Compared to the average SEC team, Memphis is pretty, well, average. They grab 32.8% of their possible offensive boards (SEC average: 32.9%) and 69.0% of their possible defensive boards (SEC average: 68.9%). We, on the other hand, have an offensive rebounding percentage of 36.5% (3rd in the SEC) and a defensive rebounding percentage of 72.4% (1st in the SEC). So why am I harping on this? Well, it's because I'm deathly afraid we'll fail Key #1. If that's the case, it is absolutely imperative that we limit Memphis' second chance opportunities. We're likely to give them extra scoring chances via turnovers, so we really can't afford to let them have any on offensive rebounds.
3) The crowd needs to get involved. I'm cheating a little on this one, since it's not completely in the team's control, but I really do think it's that important. This game is about as evenly matched as it gets on paper, and Memphis has yet to play a true road game. In those sort of circumstances a large, rowdy crowd can and routinely does provide a decisive advantage. If we're behind, we'll need the support to catch up. If we're ahead, we'll need the support to slam the door. We the fans must show up early, show up in force, and pile on Memphis for the full forty minutes. So consider this a call to action.
Bottom line: this one is really, really close. Last time I checked, we were -7.5 favorites, but I think that's generous. I'll take Carolina to win because of the home crowd, but I don't think we'll cover.
DISCLAIMER: I track a mixture of traditional statistics taken from official box scores and home-brew advanced stats inspired by, but not identical to, sites such as KenPom. For some of the advanced stats I'm still waffling on precisely how to calculate them. In addition, I do not count games against Division II, III, or NAIA teams (fortunately for us, considering how we played against Francis Marion). The above should not be taken as authoritative, but as some random dude's opinion. My degree is in engineering, not statistics.
Finally, a tribute to one of the most metal men in history. Rest in peace, Lemmy.
1) Limit the turnovers. This is really starting to become a problem for us. In fact, I would say this is probably our biggest issue. Since returning from the Virgin Islands, we have been turning the ball over every 4.346 attempts (which would be 13th in the SEC), and are slightly underwater in assist to turnover ratio, at 0.958. This has to stop, period. If this game goes south, or if we struggle in conference play, or both, this will be the reason why.
2) Own the defensive glass. This one should be doable. Compared to the average SEC team, Memphis is pretty, well, average. They grab 32.8% of their possible offensive boards (SEC average: 32.9%) and 69.0% of their possible defensive boards (SEC average: 68.9%). We, on the other hand, have an offensive rebounding percentage of 36.5% (3rd in the SEC) and a defensive rebounding percentage of 72.4% (1st in the SEC). So why am I harping on this? Well, it's because I'm deathly afraid we'll fail Key #1. If that's the case, it is absolutely imperative that we limit Memphis' second chance opportunities. We're likely to give them extra scoring chances via turnovers, so we really can't afford to let them have any on offensive rebounds.
3) The crowd needs to get involved. I'm cheating a little on this one, since it's not completely in the team's control, but I really do think it's that important. This game is about as evenly matched as it gets on paper, and Memphis has yet to play a true road game. In those sort of circumstances a large, rowdy crowd can and routinely does provide a decisive advantage. If we're behind, we'll need the support to catch up. If we're ahead, we'll need the support to slam the door. We the fans must show up early, show up in force, and pile on Memphis for the full forty minutes. So consider this a call to action.
Bottom line: this one is really, really close. Last time I checked, we were -7.5 favorites, but I think that's generous. I'll take Carolina to win because of the home crowd, but I don't think we'll cover.
DISCLAIMER: I track a mixture of traditional statistics taken from official box scores and home-brew advanced stats inspired by, but not identical to, sites such as KenPom. For some of the advanced stats I'm still waffling on precisely how to calculate them. In addition, I do not count games against Division II, III, or NAIA teams (fortunately for us, considering how we played against Francis Marion). The above should not be taken as authoritative, but as some random dude's opinion. My degree is in engineering, not statistics.
Finally, a tribute to one of the most metal men in history. Rest in peace, Lemmy.
